Property Point 11 July

I was in Sydney recently for an indulgent four-day long weekend celebrating my wife’s birthday with drinks in cool bars, dinners in next-level restaurants and, for her, a spot of clothes and jewellery shopping.

When it came to the day for serious shopping we went to the beautiful, cool, historic, bustling inner-east suburb of Paddington and I heard these magical words from my wife: “Why don’t you go to the pub while I have a look at the shops?”

Like every couple, we’ve had the odd disagreement over the years, but this wasn’t one of those times. Sonia plunged herself into the boutiques of Paddington while I found myself ensconced in a 130-year-old pub that had been slightly modernised but not too much to spoil the authentic, historic “feel” of the place.

Local residents, some with their dogs, shuffled in and out for a drink and chat and a bite to eat.

There wasn’t a sports bar because that would have been out of place but there was a TV screen on mute in a quiet corner showing the footy. That’s where I sat enjoying a few beers while watching the people and the footy and checking out some of the historic photos on the wall.

It felt like my hi-tech mobile phone didn’t belong there but, of course, I  had a look at that to catch up on news and the usual stuff delivered through social media.

I came across a story with a headline that said there was some “shock new data” showing the “area Aussies are escaping in record numbers – and the surprising place they are moving to instead”.

As I sat in that beautiful pub in that chic suburb in that heaving metropolis, I read that the place people are escaping is Sydney.  And where are they going? Queensland.

The News Corp report covered figures that assessed the movement between regions of the domestic population and it showed that the number of people leaving Sydney to live elsewhere now “outstrips the natural increase in the city’s population”.

And a domestic assessment of people moving into and out of Sydney shows that the net domestic outflow from 2021 to 2024 to be 129,300 from Sydney and 38,700 from Melbourne. So, without international migration their populations would be falling.

During that three-year period, the biggest net inflows have been seen by Brisbane, which added 56,100 domestic arrivals and regional Queensland, which added 54,900 people.

Housing affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne is a major factor.

While Brisbane attracted the greatest number of domestic migrants, the median price of a house in that city has just reached the $1m mark. Not cheap. And although retirees are expected to swarm to the Gold Coast in coming years, housing affordability in that city could be an obstacle for others from down south.

Which leaves us with regional Queensland areas further north, such as Mackay. We know that prices have gone up dramatically and it is hard for many Mackay people to understand that a fairly basic three-bedroom house can now cost around $600,000.

However, for people down south facing house prices of $1m and $2m, Mackay is still affordable. One thing that those ABS figures don’t, and can’t, factor in is the number of people from regional areas down south who are choosing not to move to Sydney and Melbourne because of housing affordability.

Those people, and the ones leaving the big cities, might start to see the entire south-east corner of Queensland as unaffordable. It’s already happening but, in growing numbers, they can be expected to cast their eyes further north to places like Mackay to put down roots and raise families.

Affordability, housing supply and infrastructure will be the key issues coming up in Mackay. The question is: do we have a council that’s up to it?

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