Property Point

No city or region in Australia has been unaffected by the property market changes that have become obvious ever since the Federal Government introduced its budget in May, removing negative gearing from established housing and changing the capital gains tax rules.

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But some have been hit harder than others. The latest property market review by valuers Herron Todd White gives an extensive rundown of where particular regions sit as well as the nation as a whole.

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HTW chief economist Cameron Kusher pointed out in the September review that inflation continues to be a factor, not only in cost of living but also projected interest rate rises in the months ahead.

He said: “National dwelling values fell by 3.1 per cent over the three months to August 2026, with capital city values 3.7 per cent lower and regional values falling by 1.2 per cent.”

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He said property market analyst Cotality estimates that over the three months to August 2026 “there were 14.6 per cent fewer property sales than the same period last year”.

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“Transaction activity has seen a much greater decline in the capital cities than in the regional markets; however, falls are broad-based,” he said.

“Every capital city except for Hobart is seeing a higher volume of properties available for sale relative to a year ago, and only regional Tasmania and regional NT are seeing fewer total listings.

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“Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have historically high listing volumes, and although they aren’t at historic highs elsewhere, Brisbane and Perth have seen annual increases of more than 50 per cent, and Adelaide has seen an annual increase of more than 40 per cent.

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“The heightened volume of stock for sale at a time in which there are fewer active buyers in the market means that those who are buying have less urgency and more choice. In turn, this means that they have greater scope to negotiate on price, and there are many properties that will take a long time to sell in this market or simply won’t transact.

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“In the regional areas, the longest median days on market are in NT, NSW and Victoria and the lowest are in WA, Queensland and Tasmania.”

The HTW monthly review includes their very interesting property clock, in which they categorise where particular markets are in the property cycle.

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Sitting at 3 o’clock on the property clock in a declining market are Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Sitting in the “starting to decline” category includes cities such as Alice Springs, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

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Several Queensland cities are included in the “peak of the market” category; Gladstone, Bundaberg and Toowoomba.

And cities in the “approaching the top of the market” category include Cairns, Sunshine Coast, Townsville and the Whitsundays.

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What about the cities still sitting at 9 o’clock, the “rising market” category?

Well, there aren’t nearly as many cities in that category as there were a few months ago but it still includes Mackay, Rockhampton and Emerald, among a few others.

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HTW can only go on the data in front of them, however agents on the ground experience the market as it happens.

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It is true that the Mackay market is behaving nothing like the free fall being felt in major cities like Sydney. The economy is going well, unemployment is virtually non-existent, rental vacancies are low and properties are selling.

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However, no agent in Mackay will tell you that right now Mackay is in a rising market. It’s still active and people are still buying but at the moment it’s not going up … it represents a great opportunity for those wanting to get into the market and investors seeking one of Australia’s best rental returns.

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