Two of Wilmar’s global sugar traders shared the latest market intel with Proserpine canegrowers earlier this month, during a series of grower meetings in north and central Queensland.
Senior sugar traders, Peter Bingham from London and Neil Foo Zhizhou from Singapore, spent a week visiting Wilmar’s milling regions and addressing large grower turnouts.
Peter dived into the supply and demand fundamentals pulled together by the Wilmar global team.
Behind Peter and Neil sit a team of research analysts and a global network of information sources. The granular detail they can talk to regarding the demand and supply issues in each of the origin and consumption destinations is impressive.
In short, the near-term outlook remains supportive of prices.
Even with the elevated price there is only minor demand destruction, which is growing globally at roughly 2 million tonnes of sugar a year.
The past few years have seen a substantial drawdown of global stocks as demand continues to outstrip supply, so there is little room for a slip-up in the current Brazilian crop.
Moreover, the potential for development of the El Nino weather pattern has traders alert to possible delays in the ongoing Brazilian harvest and the risk to the Indian monsoon which is critical to the next major crop supply.
Neil Foo Zhizhou focused on the macro factors affecting the sugar market and presented some possible longer-term scenarios.
A major element of his thesis is the massive amount of US dollar debt that is projected to increase exponentially.
This will lead to persistent inflation with the outcome of continually rising commodity prices.
Not surprisingly growers liked what they heard. However, Neil was quick to point out that these are projections based on hypothesis and assumptions and there is no certainty to outcomes.
Nevertheless, growers were happy to chat to Neil following the presentation to dig deeper into his thinking.
Contributed with thanks to Simon Hood
Wilmar Manager Grower Marketing
Neil Foo Zhizhou, Craig Emerson and Peter Bingham. Photo supplied
Wilmar senior sugar traders Neil Foo Zhizhou and Peter Bingham. Photo supplied
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