By Simon Hood
Wilmar Manager Grower Marketing
Thank you to all growers who nominated Wilmar Grower Marketing as their GEI marketer for the 2026 season.
I would like to extend a warm welcome to the growing number of new growers who have chosen Wilmar for the first time. We don’t take any nomination, new or existing, for granted and remain committed to delivering strong returns, flexible products and personalised service to maintain your trust in this vital part of your business.
This year has been particularly challenging on the pricing front. Just 8 months ago, the March 26 futures contract was trading close to 20 USc/lb, with the AUD sugar price above $650/t. We are now facing a $465/t price and futures at 14 USc/lb.
Our recent October Pool results have reinforced our decision to relaunch the Managed Pool as the Managed Pool Plus (MPP) with the key difference being its extended time horizon for price management compared to the Production Risk Pool (PRP).
At the end of October, the MPP was forecast at $560/t Actual versus the PRP at $515/t. During the month, the 2025 Season price fell by about $70/t Actual, while the MPP dropped $40/t and the PRP $60/t, reflecting the MPP’s higher hedge profile.
The Grower Marketing team are fielding lots of enquiries from growers seeking guidance on sugar price outlooks. While no one can predict prices with certainty, our analysts expect global sugar stocks to build over the next 12 to 18 months due to large crops in India and Brazil, assuming normal weather.
Ethanol remains another key factor, with prices influenced by oil markets, relative feedstock prices, and government regulation. The recent dip in sugar prices below 14 USc/lb has already prompted some Brazilian mills to switch from sugar to ethanol, showing price signals are working to rebalance supply and demand.
Across all regions, growers are underpriced for the 2025 season, and even more so for 2026. While that is a challenge shared across the industry, it is important to look ahead. If you could lock in $525/t today for the 2025 season, would you take it? The 2028 season has that price available now, and pricing even a small portion early can help manage risk and secure a solid base as markets evolve.
The AUD Sugar price has dropped considerably since it’s last high in April over $650/t to recent lows under $460/t Image supplied
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