Milling, Weather, World Market All Part Of The Growers’ Gamble

By Joseph Borg, Chairman, CANEGROWERS Mackay

The stage is now being set for the 2026 harvest, and that will now have to take into account any impacts to Upper Pioneer Valley cane farms during the passage of TC Koji.

At the time of writing, six-hour totals of 200-290mm in range and creek areas across Sunday 11 January  around the Upper Pioneer Valley had delivered significant inundations to farming areas, but impacts were yet to be assessed. Canegrowers Mackay will support any affected growers and their communities in whatever way we can.

Milling, weather and the world market are all significant variables in cane farming. In other words, it can be a bit of a gamble.

The conclusion of the 2025 Mackay/Plane Creek crushing season was the earliest finish to the crush in about five years. Whilst that is a positive, it is also a reflection on the reduced crop size.

Slight improvements in factory performance were swallowed up by horrendous shortfalls in the logistics sectors and   as we move forward to the next crushing season   all sectors of the industry need to work together to help rectify this significant failure in the production chain.

As 2026 dawns in its infancy, there are certainly early signs of an improved crop size for the upcoming harvest season, albeit there is still a lot of water to go under the bridge before harvesting begins.

The relatively dry nature of the crush season saw a larger amount of irrigation being utilised than what has been seen in recent memory.   The dryer season also allowed for a relatively correct sequence in harvesting order and minimal paddock damage being inflicted on ratooning paddocks.

All these factors, combined with what has been reasonable sporadic rainfall since the completion of the crush up until our first proper monsoon pulse in January, are certainly pointing towards a positive outcome in crop size for 2026.

The challenge going forward is to then process the crop in a timely manner to achieve the maximum benefit of the potential of the crop.  This can be affected by milling performance, logistics shortfalls and of course, weather.  If there is one thing that is predictable about the weather, it is that it is unpredictable.

The general consensus to which anyone in the agricultural sector will testify, is that farming is a calculated gamble. It is impacted by numerous factors well and truly outside the growers’ control.
On top of the list of challenges faced by sugarcane growers is the vulnerability of the volatile world commodity markets which at the current time are in an extremely depressed state.

The positive consideration looking forward is that - at current levels - it is believed by market experts that most sugar-producing nations are hovering around cost of production. This therefore would make you presume that if current production levels are unsustainable, a correction in the world’s sugar production may be imminent.

Major world players such as Brazil and India may decide to increase ethanol production rather than produce sugar or even grow other crops which may be more lucrative under the current prices. A reduction in the global production would hopefully lead to a world sugar deficit and then an increase in price.  We can only continue to monitor the situation and hope that this situation plays out in this manner.

Finally, on behalf of Mackay Canegrowers, I wish everyone in the Mackay community a happy and prosperous 2026 and may we all work together to make it one of the best years yet!  All the best and keep safe everyone.

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The Christmas- New Year’s period saw quality rainfall for the 2026 crop. Picture: Kirili Lamb.

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