The Armchair Warrior

Only one more week until the big dance – election day is next Saturday. Candidates will be making their final pitches. Chances are though, many voters have already made up their minds and are heading for an early vote. Early polling opened this week and people can cast their vote anytime from now until polls close on May 3rd.

At the 2022 election 32.2% of eligible voters chose to cast their vote before polling day with another 15.9% sending in postal votes. That is a whopping 48.1% of Australian voters had made up their minds early. Many political commentators expect to see a similar figure replicated this year. However, many suggest that while there is a large block of voters who have long known where their vote is headed, a large number are still undecided.

With so many voters this year still undecided, could we see a late surge in support for one of the two major parties or maybe like in 2022 will votes be parked with minor parties and independents?

The betting agents say a hung parliament is on the cards which will result in a drawn out declaration of who forms government. In 2010, the Labor government hung onto power via a minority government before a comprehensive victory by the Coalition in 2013. Could history repeat?

The fallout of the election will make for interesting watching as the outcome usually sees decisions on the futures of political careers made. Unless there is a definitive victory, behind closed doors the caucus of each political party will discuss, debate and unpack the election and decide if a new leader will be best to take them forward.

There is some speculation that Albanese already has one eye on his NSW Central Coast property and unless Labor win a majority this will be his last trip to the big dance. The school of thought is that if the Coalition claim victory his resignation from parliament will be weeks or months after the election, and if Labor secure victory but via a minority, he will pass the baton on half way through the term. Doing this would give time for a new voice to take over and if need be pivot central polices in the hope of avoiding a landslide outcome like that of 2013.

Both Albanese and Dutton are spruiking confidence that they can secure a majority government. They both say they have a plan for Australia’s future.

If Albanese is thinking this could be his last campaign, is he going to pull some last minute moves and throw a Hail Mary or can Dutton successfully sell the Coalition’s message for a majority? Either way, the outcome as to who will lead Australia for the next 3 years will be known soon, albeit if there is a hung parliament there may be a bit of a delay.

Bottom line – Leaders are not forever but the direction the country takes under their leadership can be long lasting.

‍